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パリ発 五感の穴

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Bid/Offer for My Trip to Iran

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(Picture from Cuzco, Peru, 2005)

I was talking about my trip to Iran in mid September and my friend tought me a very interesting site called "Intrade Prediction market".

In the site, you can basiclally trade any idea people predict about. Let's say "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30SEP07". The bid/offer of this is 2.5/3.4. That means, people predict there are around 3% chance of U.S attacking Iran in September 7, 2007! What is amazing is the fact the bid/offer has dropped dramatically since October, 2006 and it goes up again for December, 2007 and March, 2007.

We buy and sell risk, gain revenues or protections out of the trade and the modern technology certainly helps the idea and the purpose of the market to be pushed to its extreme.

So my friend strongly said he didn't mean to scare me but he also suggested to buy the protections. How interesting and blow minding thought it is! On the other hand, many of the markiet participants, whether I go to Iran or not, people will continue the predictions and keep bidding and offering the price. The prediction is sometime nothing to do with the reality as the prediction itself.

What if the prediction becomes solely a game to predict? What if the reality is not so important but merely to make money? You don't care if Iran is attacked, as the essence of the concern is whether your prediction is right, not if the society is in a risk of attack?

The modern society is so good at spreading ideas, sharing ideas, trading ideas but yet, if the ideas themselves have less spece to be considered about, that is a bit scary.
[PR]
by Haruka_Miki | 2007-08-18 00:00 | 経済的営み
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